SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, JANUARY 31
NBA
Denver (31-15, 21-23-2 ATS) at San Antonio (27-18, 23-21-1 ATS)
The Nuggets, coming off their first loss in nearly three weeks, complete a three-game road trip when they visit the AT&T Center for a clash with the Spurs.
Denver’s eight-game winning streak was snapped in Friday’s 101-84 loss at Oklahoma City, falling as a two-point road underdog. Forward Carmelo Anthony (ankle injury) missed his third straight game, and without their All-Star, the Nuggets were held to season-low in points while shooting 40.3 percent from the field. Nearly a quarter of the team’s points came from the free-throw line (20-for-22). Denver has dropped eight of its last 11 road games (2-8-1 ATS).
San Antonio has followed up a 1-5 SU and ATS slump – including a three-game SU and ATS home losing streak – with consecutive home wins over the Hawks (105-90 as a three-point chalk on Wednesday) and Grizzlies (104-97 as a five-point favorite on Friday). Prior to exploding in the last two games, the Spurs’ offense had reached triple digits in scoring just once in their previous six games.
Like Denver, San Antonio has an All-Star dealing with an ankle injury, as point guard Tony Parker missed Friday’s game. Parker has been ruled out today, while Anthony is doubtful.
The Nuggets scored a 106-99 upset win in San Antonio as a four-point underdog back on Dec. 9, the first meeting between these Western Conference powers this season. Denver has won two in a row, three of the last four and five of the last seven in this series, going 5-2 ATS. The road team and underdog have cashed in five straight meetings.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Spurs’ last 10 games and 21 of their last 22, and the winner has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry.
The Nuggets have cashed in four straight games when coming off a non-cover, but otherwise George Karl’s club is in pointspread slumps of 2-8-1 on the road, 3-10-2 against the Western Conference, 1-4 against the Southwest Division, 4-11 after one day off and 0-5-1 on Sunday. Likewise, San Antonio is in ATS ruts of 2-7 on Sunday and 2-8 against the Northwest Division.
The under is 20-7 in the last 27 Spurs-Nuggets matchups and 16-5-1 in the last 22 clashes at the AT&T Center. Additionally, Denver is riding “under” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 13-6 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus Southwest Division squads and 24-8-1 against winning teams, while the under is 21-6 in San Antonio’s last 27 against winning teams and 8-1-1 in its last 10 on Sunday. On the flip side, the Spurs are on “over” runs of 3-1-1 overall (all at home) and 20-8-1 against Northwest Division foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
L.A. Lakers (36-11, 22-24-1 ATS) at Boston (29-15, 18-26 ATS)
The surging Lakers, in the midst of a season-long eight-game road trip, go after their fourth straight win and cover when they make their only visit of the season to TD Banknorth Garden to renew their rivalry with the Celtics.
Los Angeles dumped the 76ers 99-91 as a 6½-point favorite on Friday and is now 4-2 SU and ATS on the road trip, including 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three. The Lakers have also won seven of nine overall (6-2-1 ATS), but Phil Jackson’s troops are just 13-8 SU and 9-12 ATS on the highway this year.
Star forward Kevin Garnett returned to the Celtics’ lineup last week after missing 10 games with an injury and he immediately helped his team to a pair of home wins over Portland (98-95 in overtime) and the Clippers (95-89). However, Boston then went on the road and blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead at Orlando on Thursday (losing 96-94 as a 3½-point underdog) followed by Friday’s 100-91 loss in Atlanta as a four-point pup. The Celtics have dropped 10 of their last 16 games, going 5-11 ATS, and they’ve split their last six home games, failing to cover in the last five.
The SU winner is 14-0-1 ATS in the Lakers’ last 15 games, including 6-0 ATS in the last six, and the winner has cashed in each of L.A.’s last 14 road contests.
After losing the 2008 NBA Finals to the Celtics, the Lakers got a little revenge last year as they swept the season series, winning 92-83 as a two-point home favorite and 110-109 in overtime as a seven-point road underdog. Prior to those two wins and covers, Boston had been on a 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS roll in this rivalry, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home. Finally, the underdog has gotten the money in five of the last seven series clashes.
Los Angeles is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall (all on the road and all against the Eastern Conference), 4-1 versus Atlantic Division foes and 6-1 on Sunday, but it is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games against winning teams.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS in Boston’s last seven games, with the Celtics going 0-5 ATS as a favorite during this stretch. Additionally, Doc Rivers’ squad is in pointspread ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-5 at home, 0-6 versus Western Conference foes, 0-8 against the Pacific Division, 2-6 when playing after one day of rest and 1-4 against winning teams.
The Lakers had a four-game “over” streak snapped at Philadelphia on Friday, and the under is 5-2-1 in their last seven against Atlantic Division teams and 20-6-2 in their last 28 on Sunday. Similarly, Boston is on “under” runs of 9-4 on Sunday and 4-1 against the Pacific Division.
Finally, the over is 3-0 in the last three Lakers-Celtics battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Florida (15-5, 8-7 ATS) at (14) Tennessee (15-4, 8-7-1 ATS)
Having suffered back-to-back losses, the Volunteers will try to get back on track when they welcome suddenly surging Florida to Thompson-Boling Arena for an SEC East clash.
The Gators dropped their first two SEC games to Vanderbilt (95-87 on the road) and Kentucky (89-77 at home), but they’ve since ripped off four straight wins, all in league play, going 3-1 ATS. On Wednesday, Florida pummeled Georgia 87-71 as a nine-point home favorite, and it has now scored more than 70 points in five of six SEC contests.
Tennessee took a seven-game winning streak into last Saturday’s league game at Georgia and it got crushed 78-63 as a 6½-point road favorite. Then the Vols returned home Wednesday to face No. 21 Vanderbilt and blew a four-point halftime lead, losing 85-76, again laying 6½ points. Tennessee has followed up a 4-0 ATS run by failing to cash in three of its last four (all in conference).
The Vols are on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, taking last year’s two meetings by scores of 79-63 (as a four-point home chalk) and 79-75 (as a 4½-point road underdog). Tennessee is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in Knoxville, with the last three being double-digit routs. Finally, the Vols are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 against Florida and 13-3 ATS in the last 16.
The Gators have cashed in seven of 10 after a SU victory and four of five on the road, while Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against winning teams, but 1-5 ATS in its last six after a SU defeat and 1-3-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover.
Both teams are on a slew of low-scoring streaks. For the Gators, the under is on runs of 13-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 24-9-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 on Sunday, while Tennessee carries “under” trends of 10-4 overall, 6-2 at home, 11-5 in SEC play and 5-0 on Sunday. Also, both of last year’s Vols-Gators battles stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
Minnesota (13-7, 9-10 ATS) at (20) Ohio State (15-6, 10-11 ATS)
Minnesota will try to snap a three-game road losing streak and hand the Buckeyes their first home defeat of the season when these Big Ten rivals complete their season series at Value City Arena.
The Golden Gophers ended a three-game losing streak with Tuesday’s 65-61 victory over Northwestern, but they never threatened to cover as a 12½-point home favorite, their fourth straight ATS setback. Minnesota started the conference season with consecutive wins over Penn State (home) and Iowa (road), but Tubby Smith’s squad is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS since then (0-3 SU and ATS on the road). The only spread-cover in this stretch came in a 73-62 win over Ohio State as a four-point favorite on Jan. 9.
Ohio State won its first Big Ten road game of the season Wednesday, rallying past Iowa 65-57 but coming up short as a 10½-point chalk. The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games (5-1 in conference), but they’ve followed up a 4-1 ATS run by failing to cash in their last two. Thad Matta’s team is 12-0 at Value City Arena (8-4 ATS), averaging 81.6 points per game on 53.1 percent shooting while holding visitors to 54.2 ppg (37.2 percent).
With the Gophers’ nine-point win over Ohio State earlier this month, the home team improved to 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings and 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in the last eight. The Buckeyes have defeated Minnesota three straight times in Columbus (3-0 ATS). Finally in this rivalry, the favorite has covered in seven straight meetings.
In addition to failing to cash in their last four overall, Golden Gophers sport negative ATS trends of 5-16-1 on the road, 7-21 on Sunday and 1-5 against winning teams. Likewise, Ohio State is in pointspread slumps of 4-9 overall, 2-8 on Sunday, 2-6 after a SU victory and 2-6 after a non-cover.
Minnesota has topped the total in 10 of its last 14 games on Sunday, but is otherwise on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall (all in Big Ten action) and 4-0 against winning teams. Ohio State is on “under” runs of 5-1 at home, 10-4 in league play, 17-6 on Sunday, 9-2 after a non-cover and 4-0 versus opponents with a winning record.
Finally, the last four meetings in this series have stayed low, as have four of the last five clashes at Value City Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Maryland (14-5, 9-6 ATS) at Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS)
Two ACC rivals heading in opposite directions meet up at Littlejohn Coliseum in South Carolina, as struggling Clemson attempts to snap its three-game losing skid and end the Terrapins’ four-game winning streak.
Maryland has destroyed its last four opponents, knocking off ACC foes Boston College (73-57 as a two-point road underdog), North Carolina State (88-64 as a 9½-point home chalk) and Miami, Fla. (81-59 as an 8½-point home favorite) while also pounding Longwood (106-55 in a non-lined game). The Terps are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in ACC play, with the only blemish being a two-point overtime loss at Wake Forest as a 3½-point underdog. After Tuesday’s rout of Miami, Maryland is now on a 6-0 ATS run.
The Tigers have followed up a three-game winning streak with three straight losses (all six games in conference). They sandwiched two close road losses – at Georgia Tech (66-64 as a one-point underdog) and at Boston College (75-69 as a two point favorite) – around last Saturday’s 60-47 home loss to Duke as a two-point pup. Clemson won 12 of 14 non-conference games to start the season but is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS within the ACC.
Clemson has won two in a row (SU and ATS) and six of the last eight (SU and ATS) against Maryland, including last year’s 93-64 thumping as a 10½-point home favorite. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 11 clashes.
Other than their pointspread struggles against Clemson, the Terps are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 6-0 overall, 8-0 in ACC play dating to last season, 4-0 on the road, 5-2 on Sunday and 5-0 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, the Tigers had cashed in six straight home games prior to Saturday’s blowout loss to Duke, and they’re in ATS funks of 0-4 overall (all in conference, all against winning teams) and 2-8 after a non-cover.
These teams have topped the total in seven of their last eight meetings overall, including the last four in a row at Littlejohn Coliseum. Also, Maryland carries “over” trends of 9-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 5-1 against teams with a winning record, while the Tigers have topped the total seven of their last eight versus opponents with a winning record. On the flip side, Clemson is on “under” runs of 9-3 overall, 19-7-2 at home, 4-0 on Sunday and 5-2 against ACC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
